Dealing with re-election this 12 months, Gov. Kathy Hochul finds herself in a stronger political place than at any level since taking workplace, in accordance with a brand new Siena School ballot that exhibits her private favorability at an all-time excessive.
Photograph by Mike Groll/Workplace of Governor Kathy Hochul
Dealing with re-election this 12 months, Gov. Kathy Hochul finds herself in a stronger political place than at any level since taking workplace, in accordance with a brand new Siena School ballot that exhibits her private favorability at an all-time excessive.
Her seemingly Republican opponent, Nassau County Govt Bruce Blakeman, can also be trailing badly in an early normal election matchup anticipated to happen amid an anticipated blue wave in November.
The Siena Analysis Institute survey, carried out Jan. 26-28 amongst 802 registered voters statewide, exhibits Hochul is seen favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 40%, the primary time in additional than 4 years that her favorability has reached that degree in SRI polling.
The end result marks a notable enchancment from December, when Hochul stood at 43% favorable and 41% unfavorable.
In a hypothetical normal election matchup, Hochul leads Blakeman 54% to twenty-eight%, with 17% undecided or saying they might not vote.
With U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik not operating for governor, Blakeman is extensively anticipated to develop into the Republican nominee, leaving Hochul with a commanding early benefit in opposition to a challenger who seems to stay largely unknown to voters outdoors of Lengthy Island.
Siena discovered that almost three-fifths of New Yorkers both have by no means heard of Blakeman or lack an opinion about him. His favorability ranking stands at 18% favorable and 20% unfavorable, a slight enchancment from December however nonetheless effectively beneath Hochul’s standing.
Hochul’s energy is most pronounced inside her personal social gathering. Amongst registered Democrats, she holds a 64%-11% lead over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado in a hypothetical main — her strongest exhibiting in opposition to Delgado up to now in Siena’s polling.
Democrats view Hochul favorably by a 69%-20% margin, her finest efficiency with the social gathering in three years.
Hochul additionally leads Blakeman by overwhelming margins amongst Democrats, 79% to eight%, whereas Blakeman’s benefit amongst Republicans — 69% to fifteen% — is smaller. Independents favor Hochul 41% to 34%.
Nassau County Govt Bruce Blakeman, at podium, speaks throughout a information convention in Mineola, N.Y., Wednesday, March 6, 2024. AP Photograph/Philip Marcelo)
Regardless of these numbers, the ballot suggests the governor nonetheless faces some residual vulnerability. When requested whether or not Hochul deserves re-election, solely 42% of voters stated they might vote to re-elect her, whereas 51% stated they would like another person.
The ballot additionally finds broad voter assist for a number of main proposals Hochul outlined in her State of the State deal with and proposed funds, together with insurance policies that take pleasure in bipartisan backing.
Sixty-eight % of voters assist eliminating state earnings taxes on the primary $25,000 earned in ideas. Sixty-seven % again limiting immigration enforcement in “sensitive locations” equivalent to faculties, hospitals, and locations of worship until authorities have a judicial warrant.
Two-thirds assist growing childcare funding by $1.7 billion, and 65% favor permitting New Yorkers to carry state-level civil actions in opposition to federal officers they imagine violated their constitutional rights.
Even Republicans expressed majority or plurality assist for a number of of those proposals, notably the tax exemption for tipped earnings and direct support to farmers to offset tariff-related prices.
The ballot additionally discovered that President Donald Trump continues to battle with New York voters throughout the first 12 months of his second time period. Trump’s favorability ranking stands at 33% favorable and 63% unfavorable, just about unchanged from December.
Hochul final week launched the “Local Cops, Local Crimes Act,” which might prohibit cooperative 287(g) agreements between native police departments and the federal authorities that enable ICE to deputize native officers as federal brokers to help in immigration enforcement.
Talking with NY1 on Monday, Blakeman stated he wouldn’t rule out suing the state if Gov. Hochul’s proposal to finish native immigration enforcement agreements with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement turns into legislation, reinforcing his assist for cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
The Siena ballot, nonetheless, paints a bleak image for federal immigration authorities within the eyes of New Yorkers. ICE is seen unfavorably by 67% of voters, with solely 28% holding a good opinion. Whereas voters narrowly assist deporting folks dwelling within the nation illegally, they overwhelmingly oppose how ICE is presently working.
Sixty-one % of respondents oppose the way in which ICE is working to arrest folks, two-thirds say the company’s techniques have gone too far, and 59% oppose sending extra ICE brokers to NYC. Democrats and independents are carefully aligned of their opposition, whereas Republicans largely assist ICE’s strategy.
Individually, the ballot additionally finds NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani at his highest favorability ranking up to now, 48% favorable and 32% unfavorable.
Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer stays underwater at 39% favorable and 46% unfavorable, although his numbers have improved barely since November. Legal professional Normal Letitia James continues to put up stable scores at 44% favorable and 30% unfavorable.
