Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani (left), impartial former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Picture by Lloyd Mitchell
Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani hits almost 50% assist and has a 25-point lead over impartial former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in keeping with the Emerson ballot. This considerably differs from three different prestigious polls — from Suffolk, Quinnipiac, and Marist Universities launched between Oct. 26-28 — which present Cuomo narrowing the hole with Mamdani, closing to inside 10 factors of the frontrunner in two of the polls.
The Emerson ballot of 640 very possible voters and people who have already voted, performed between Oct. 25-27, is the primary main impartial ballot to indicate Mamdani at 49.6%. All through the overall election, the Democratic nominee and Queens Meeting member has been the frontrunner, however with a plurality somewhat than a majority, within the three-person contest between him, Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
The brand new Emerson survey passed off in the course of the begin of early voting, and of 243 individuals who mentioned they’d early voted, 58% mentioned they selected Mamdani, whereas 25% opted for Cuomo. Mamdani holds a slimmer 19% edge amongst survey respondents who mentioned they’d but to vote.
Total, Cuomo had 25% assist within the new Emerson ballot, down three factors from the final survey taken in September, when he had 28%. That snapshot of the race was taken a few weeks earlier than Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race.
Thursday’s outcomes even have Republican Curtis Sliwa shut behind Cuomo, with 21%; Sliwa gained 11 factors since September. 5 % are undecided or different. The ballot has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
Spencer Kimball, government director of Emerson School Polling, said that Mamdani has widened his lead “across key demographics.” He mentioned Mamdani has boosted his assist amongst Black voters from 50% to 71%, whereas Cuomo misplaced 10 factors with the identical group.
“Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69% of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37% of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31% support Cuomo and 28% Silwa,” Kimball mentioned.
Responding to the Emerson ballot, Cuomo spokesperson Wealthy Azzopardi maintained the race is tightening, pointing to a giant quantity of older voters turning out to forged early ballots, as evidenced within the Quinnipiac and Suffolk College polls launched this week.
“For weeks this has been a tightening race with early voting showing a surge of older voters — the exact inverse of the primary —and turnout on track for between 1.9 and 2 million,” Azzopardi mentioned. “With those dynamics, every poll out there is essentially meaningless from this point out.”
By way of voter favorability, the Emerson ballot discovered that 52% of respondents seen Mamdani favorably, versus 41% who seen him unfavorably. Thirty-five % of voters have a positive stance in direction of Cuomo, whereas 58% don’t.
Sliwa is seen favorably by 21% of these surveyed, and unfavorably by 55%.
Spokespeople for Mamdani and Sliwa didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.
