Democratic mayoral nominee and Meeting Member Zohran Mamdani leads the mayor’s race even in a head-to-head match up with rival former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, based on a brand new Siena School/New York Instances ballot. Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025.
Picture by Lloyd Mitchell
Democratic mayoral nominee and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani would nonetheless lead within the November normal election, albeit by a far slimmer margin, if the sphere shrank to a one-on-one bout between himself and rival former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a brand new Siena School and New York Instances ballot launched Tuesday discovered.
The survey of 1,284 registered voters taken between Sept. 2-6 discovered that Mamdani, a democratic socialist meeting member, holds a four-point benefit over Cuomo amongst doubtless voters (48% to 44%) — taking part in out what might occur if each incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa drop out.
“Cuomo would capture the vast majority of both Adams’ and Sliwa’s current support and win a majority of voters over forty-five,” Siena Analysis Institute Director Don Levy mentioned. “Mamdani’s overwhelming 22-point lead would shrink to four points.”
Cuomo and Adams are each Democrats working on their very own impartial strains.
Cuomo’s greatest (and solely) likelihood to beat Mamdani
Pollsters at Siena School indicated Tuesday that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s greatest likelihood at successful the 2025 NYC mayor’s race is that if two of his rivals, Republican Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, drop out.REUTERS/Christian Monterrosa
Adams has spent the previous week making an attempt to tamp down a number of printed stories that he’s in conversations with President Trump’s prime advisers about nabbing a job within the federal administration in trade for ending his uphill reelection bid.
On Friday, the mayor known as reporters as much as Gracie Mansion to defiantly insist he’s staying within the race. That got here hours after his marketing campaign issued a press release wherein Adams indicated he would stay a candidate, but in addition mentioned, “I will always listen if called to serve our country.”
Trump’s shut aides are reportedly contemplating making an analogous provide to Sliwa — however the purple beret-clad Republican founding father of the Guardian Angels maintained he has not been contacted by the White Home and has little interest in working for Trump.
Levy mentioned that, given the mayor’s small help, “Cuomo would need both Adams and Sliwa to drop out in order to close the gap.”
“A lot could change in this race, if Adams and/or Sliwa drop out, or Mamdani could continue to ride his support among young voters and voters concerned about economic issues all the way to Gracie Mansion,” Levy added.
Adams, requested throughout an unrelated Tuesday press convention about why he is not going to drop out given his lackluster ballot numbers, pointed to surveys within the Democratic major that constantly confirmed Cuomo within the lead proper up till he misplaced to Mamdani by nealy 13%.
“One would look and rationally believe ‘ok, let’s just do it this way,’” Adams mentioned to the thought of him dropping out to assist Cuomo. “There was a one-one-one race, the primary, [Mamdani] beat him by 12%…We bought into all of this before.”
Mamdani dominating the sphere as it’s now
Mamdani can be dominating the present subject of 4 candidates with 46% amongst doubtless voters. Whereas his benefit his a plurality and never a majority, it’s greater than sufficient to win in lower than two months.
With the anti-Mamdani vote cut up amongst three candidates, Cuomo is available in a distant second at 23%. Behind him is Republican nominee Sliwa, with 15%, and incumbent Mayor Adams is in final place at 9%.
“Mamdani holds a huge lead among younger voters while voters forty-five and older are split between Cuomo and Mamdani in the four-way race,” Levy mentioned in a press release.
The survey discovered {that a} plurality of Mamdani voters named the cost-of-living — the central focus of Mamdani’s marketing campaign — as the town’s primary subject.
Dora Pekec, Mamdani’s spokesperson, mentioned the candidate’s commanding lead reveals that his marketing campaign’s relentless concentrate on affordability continues to resonate with voters.
“New York City is not for sale,” Pekec mentioned. “The backroom scheming from Donald Trump and the billionaire class is backfiring, as New Yorkers see Zohran Mamdani is the only candidate who will fight to make the most expensive city in the country more affordable. Our campaign is busy building a movement that puts working people first – mobilizing thousands to get involved in the democratic process and fight for a new kind of politics.”
Spokespeople for Cuomo and Adams didn’t instantly touch upon the ballot.
Mamdani additionally leads throughout many different demographic classes within the four-way subject, together with males, girls, white, Black, and Hispanic voters.
