The primary mayoral basic election debate of 2025 on Thursday evening noticed Zohran Mamdani and Gov. Andrew Cuomo commerce ferocious blows, whereas Curtis Sliwa assailed them each in between complaints of being “marginalized” on the controversy stage.
Angelina Katsanis/Pool through REUTERS
A brand new ballot has discovered that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintains a snug double-digit lead over each former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa within the 2025 mayoral election, though that margin between Mamdani and Cuomo would chop significantly if Sliwa withdrew from the competition.
The brand new ballot by AARP and Gotham Polling & Analytics discovered that Mamdani holds a 14-point lead over Cuomo and a 24-point lead over Sliwa with 15 days remaining till the Nov. 4 election.
Mamdani, the clear frontrunner within the mayoral election, presently holds 43.2% help in comparison with Cuomo’s 28.9% and Sliwa’s 19.4%, with 8.4% of voters nonetheless undecided.
Nevertheless, Mamdani’s lead shrinks significantly in a state of affairs the place Sliwa exits the race earlier than election day, the ballot additionally discovered.
In that state of affairs, Mamdani would take pleasure in help from 44.6% of voters, with Cuomo’s help rocketing to 40.7%, leaving a margin of three.9% between the 2 candidates, which falls inside the ballot’s margin of error.
The ballot, performed by Gotham Polling & Analytics in partnership with AARP between Oct. 14–15, 2025, polled a pattern of 1,040 seemingly basic election voters in New York Metropolis utilizing text-to-web methodology.
Mamdani’s lead narrows from August ballot
The research follows an August ballot from AARP/Gotham when Mayor Eric Adams and unbiased candidate Jim Walden remained within the race. That ballot discovered that Mamdani held an 18-point lead with all candidates within the area and an 11-point lead in a head-to-head contest with Cuomo.
Cuomo has seized on the most recent polling knowledge, stating that the latest AARP ballot showcases Mamdani’s narrowing lead and a “dead heat” in a two-way contest. Cuomo additional asserted that voters would “discard” Sliwa on election day to keep away from the “reality” of a Mamdani Administration.
“As New Yorkers see this reality, they’ll discard the spoiler Curtis Sliwa and rally behind Cuomo to save the city. Voters don’t buy Mamdani’s divisive, extreme politics or believe that a 34-year-old who’s never held a real job is ready to run the greatest city in the world,” Cuomo’s marketing campaign mentioned in an announcement.
Sliwa stands agency
Republicans and a few reasonable Democrats have repeatedly known as on Sliwa to drop out of the race to provide Cuomo the perfect likelihood of defeating Mamdani on Nov. 4, however Sliwa has constantly said that he won’t be withdrawing his candidacy.
His marketing campaign spokesperson Daniel Kurzyna mentioned Monday that nothing had modified and that Sliwa could be remaining within the race till the tip.
Kurzyna additional alleged that the AARP/Gotham ballot was skewed closely in favor of the Cuomo marketing campaign however mentioned the ballot nonetheless confirmed a surge in help for Sliwa, who has jumped 3 factors for the reason that August AARP ballot. He additionally accused the Cuomo marketing campaign of funding the latest ballot.
“This so-called AARP ‘poll’ might as well have been paid for and printed at Cuomo headquarters with his logo on it; it is that obvious,” Kurzyna mentioned in an announcement. “Even with questions slanted in his favor, it still confirms what New Yorkers know: Curtis Sliwa’s campaign is surging and our voters are not going anywhere.”
Kurzyna mentioned the vast majority of Sliwa voters would “not touch Andrew Cuomo with a ten-foot pole” and argued that the Cuomo marketing campaign was exhibiting indicators of panic.
“The polls were wrong before and they will be wrong again; Curtis is not dropping out,” Kurzyna added. “Andrew Cuomo already lost, resigned in disgrace to avoid impeachment, and empowered the radical left that gave us Zohran Mamdani; Curtis is running to win and he will win on Nov. 4.”
Mamdani’s marketing campaign, in the meantime, accused Cuomo of searching for a lifeline after “badly” dropping the Democratic major in June. Spokesperson Dora Pekec accused Cuomo of turning to President Donald Trump for assist in the upcoming election. Cuomo denied these allegations throughout final week’s mayoral debate.
“Andrew Cuomo wanted a one-on-one in the primary and he got one – where he got beaten so badly now he’s calling Trump and his billionaire donors for a lifeline,” Pekec mentioned in an announcement. “New Yorkers are ready to turn the page on the billionaire-backed politics of the past and elect Zohran Mamdani – which is why he’s leading by double-digits and has an army of 87,000 volunteers and growing.”
Aged vote key
The AARP ballot additionally said that undecided voters aged 50 and above shall be key to the end result of the race, with 49% of voters aged 65 and over nonetheless undecided forward of subsequent month’s election.
AARP mentioned 80% of undecided voters are aged 50 and over, with price of residing and value of well being rating among the many high points for senior undecided voters.
Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, mentioned the brand new ballot means that older voters are “poised” to resolve the upcoming election.
“Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city,” Finkel mentioned in an announcement.
“Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction. These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
