Meeting Member and Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani (left) and Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Pictures by Lloyd Mitchell and Aidin Bharti/Workplace of Gov. Kathy Hochul
Outcomes of the survey, launched Tuesday, discovered that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, continues to steer the crowded mayor’s race with 44% of the vote. Nonetheless, that end result was gleaned from a small New York Metropolis-based 317-person slice of the ballot, which general spoke to 813 registered Democratic voters statewide between Aug. 4-7, reveals.
The pollsters word that the mayor’s race outcomes come from a New York Metropolis pattern that was included as a part of the statewide registered voter pattern and never weighted as a part of a metropolis seemingly voter pattern. The margin of error is +/- 6.7% they usually say among the outcomes ought to be taken as anecdotal.
The ballot reveals Mamdani holding an almost 20-point lead over his subsequent closest rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — 44% to 25%. Coming behind Cuomo, who’s working as an impartial, is Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 12% and impartial incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7%.
Since successful the Democratic main in late June, Mamdani has constantly led in public polling for the November normal election.
Hochul slips towards Stefanik
U.S. Consultant Elise Stefanik (R-NY) speaks with the media after the Republican caucus assembly, in Washington, U.S., Could 14, 2021.REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
In the meantime, Democratic Gov. Hochul’s projected lead in a possible 2026 normal election match-up with GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik shrank by 9 factors in comparison with June, whereas her job approval and favorability numbers grew barely over the identical interval.
The survey discovered that Hochul now leads Stekanik by 14 factors (45% to 31%), a dip from the 25-point (47% to 24%) benefit she held over the North Nation Congress member simply two months in the past.
Stekanik, an in depth ally of President Trump’s, has emerged as Hochul’s most certainly Republican challenger, after Hudson Valley GOP Rep. Mike Lawler introduced he would search reelection to his swing seat moderately than run for governor late final month. Nonetheless, she has but to formally launch her bid, indicating final month she wouldn’t decide till after this 12 months’s November election.
On the similar time, the ballot confirmed Hochul’s favorability amongst New York voters grew by three factors over the identical interval — from 42% to 47% in June to 42% to 44% now. Her job approval score can be up barely, 53% to 42%, in comparison with 50% to 45% two months in the past.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, in an announcement, posited that Stefanik may seize on the narrowing hole because the race attracts nearer.
“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45% to 31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Greenberg mentioned.
The pollster additional famous that each candidates have effectively over a majority of supporter from their respective events — Hochul with greater than two-thirds of Democrats behind her and Stefanik with roughly three-fourths of Republicans backing her. Independents now favor Stefanik (32% to 35%) after leaning towards Hochul in June.
The governor remains to be solidly forward in New York Metropolis, with 55% to Stefanik’s 19%, the survey discovered. However Stefanik now holds a slender lead within the metropolis’s suburbs (39% to 41%) and the pair are neck-and-neck upstate — the place Hochul, a Buffalo native, sits at 40% and Stefanik at 39%.
Stefanik has a favorability score of 27% to 32% and 41% of voters say they have no idea or have by no means heard of her.
“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively,” Greenberg mentioned. “While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik. Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided.”
The ballot additionally discovered that Hochul will seemingly be the Democratic nominee as she holds a commanding 35% lead over her main oponent — Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.
