Egg costs could method document highs, nearly two years after they peaked through the pandemic period.
Extremely pathogenic avian influenza, higher often known as chicken flu, has killed tens of millions of chickens and decreased egg provide. Shopper egg demand can also be highest round Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The trajectory of the chicken flu outbreak is unclear.
It is déjà vu for grocery customers, as the value of these Grade A eggs has spiked in latest months, simply two years after egg costs soared to document highs.
The common retail worth of eggs within the U.S. has risen 38% since November 2023, in accordance with client worth index knowledge issued Wednesday. Costs rose 8% final month alone.
A carton of a dozen giant Grade A eggs value $3.65 in November, up from $2.14 a 12 months earlier, in accordance with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There are two main causes for the surge: chicken flu, which has decreased egg provide, and the sturdy client demand that is typical across the winter vacation season, in accordance with economists and market analysts.
“There’s a very real chance we could flirt with record highs” for costs, mentioned Brian Moscogiuri, vice chairman of Eggs Limitless, an egg provider.
Grade A egg costs peaked at $4.82 a dozen in January 2023, having jumped from $1.93 in January 2022.
At a time of excessive pandemic-era inflation, eggs have been a standout, with an annual inflation fee of 60% in calendar-year 2022, in accordance with CPI knowledge. They even entered the zeitgeist: Pop star Taylor Swift advised comic Trevor Noah on the Grammy Awards in February 2023 that her followers would “get on it” to assist decrease egg costs.
How a ‘critical’ chicken flu outbreak is affecting egg costs
Now, as in 2022-23, extremely pathogenic avian influenza — higher often known as chicken flu — is a giant perpetrator.
Chook flu is a extremely contagious and deadly illness amongst birds, together with chickens. The U.S. is within the midst of a “serious outbreak,” Moscogiuri mentioned.
The illness entered the U.S. in late 2021 and has lingered, consultants mentioned. Previous to that, the final time chicken flu had impacted egg-laying chickens at industrial farms was in 2015, Moscogiuri mentioned.
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About 33 million industrial egg layers have been killed by chicken flu in 2024, in accordance with knowledge from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention.
That has “caused an egg supply shortage,” mentioned Ryan Hojnowski, an egg analyst at Expana, an agricultural market analysis agency.
Roughly half of the industrial egg layer deaths for 2024 — about 15 million birds — have occurred since Oct. 15, in accordance with CDC knowledge. Wholesale egg costs are up 97% since mid-October, in accordance with Expana.
“If you have one infection, chances are that d— near all the birds are infected, or will be infected in a very short time,” mentioned Andrew Novakovic, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell SC Johnson Faculty of Enterprise.
Thanksgiving, Christmas holidays increase egg demand
The egg provide scarcity can also be working headlong into peak season for client demand.
“Q4 is when we typically see the strongest demand for eggs as consumers tend to bake around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays,” Hojnowski mentioned.
Excessive demand and decreased provide have mixed to carry costs, consultants mentioned.
“When we get past this holiday effect, I think we’ll see some [price] softening,” Novakovic mentioned.
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However the trajectory is troublesome to foretell, consultants mentioned.
For one, chicken flu’s endurance is unclear. There have been latest outbreaks in U.S. dairy cows, and “several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers,” the CDC mentioned. As of Dec. 11, the present public well being threat was “low,” nevertheless, the CDC web site mentioned.
The U.S. Division of Agriculture on Friday issued a federal order requiring testing of U.S. milk provide for chicken flu, to assist observe and comprise the virus.
“Like any infectious disease, it’s a little hard to accurately forecast how it’s going to progress,” Novakovic mentioned.
