Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams have received assist from the identical coalition of voters of their bids to steer New York Metropolis, setting them on a collision course that would assist Zohran Mamdani in his bid to develop into the subsequent mayor, an Related Press evaluation of latest election outcomes discovered.
Mamdani, a state Meeting member, received the Democratic nomination for mayor in June, backed by a brand new coalition of voters. Cuomo, the previous New York governor, and Adams, the incumbent mayor, are operating as independents within the Nov. 4 election. Republican Curtis Sliwa is operating for the second time, after successful simply over one-quarter of the vote within the 2021 normal election.
To know the coalitions these candidates have constructed, The Related Press examined precinct-level outcomes from the final two Democratic mayoral primaries. Adams skipped the Democratic major this 12 months, whereas Cuomo completed virtually 13 share factors behind Mamdani as soon as ranked-choice tabulations have been run. Sliwa ran unopposed in 2025.
Ought to Cuomo and Adams stay within the race, the AP evaluation suggests Mamdami might have a clearer path to victory, assuming latest voting patterns repeat themselves. Sliwa, who stays a protracted shot within the closely Democratic metropolis, might additionally draw votes away from Cuomo and Adams — the extra reasonable candidates — additional serving to Mamdani.
This is a take a look at key findings from AP’s evaluation:
Mamdani’s coalition is distinct
Adams and Cuomo did greatest in areas with increased concentrations of lower-income voters, Black and Orthodox Jewish voters, and conservative-friendly elements of town like Staten Island and South Brooklyn.
Even President Donald Trump, a Republican, has expressed concern that each Cuomo and Adams remaining within the race would assist Mamdani, a democratic socialist. In early September, Trump prompt Cuomo might beat Mamdani in a one-on-one contest. Adams insisted simply final week that he is staying within the race.
The candidates’ baggage might be an element on this. Cuomo resigned from the governorship in 2021 after a number of sexual harassment allegations. Adams, in the meantime, was indicted late final 12 months on fees of accepting unlawful marketing campaign contributions and journey reductions from overseas officers. The fees have been later dropped.
Mamdani’s base stretched into multiracial, lower- and middle-income, and gentrifying areas. He additionally turned out voters at comparatively excessive charges to his rivals whereas additionally casting a large sufficient internet to siphon off assist amongst demographics that, 4 years in the past, weren’t voting for progressive candidates.
Proof of enthusiasm for Mamdani
Turnout, which solely appears on the share of eligible voters who solid ballots, can enhance whilst absolute votes solid lower. Citywide, turnout within the Democratic major was 29% of eligible voters. However within the neighborhoods Mamdani received, roughly 34% of registered Democrats solid a vote. In neighborhoods Cuomo received, solely 25% of registered Democrats voted.
Throughout town, Mamdani voters turned out at increased charges. However Mamdani was capable of additional separate himself from Cuomo by driving up turnout in areas the place absolute votes solid elevated.
In a number of the neighborhoods, there have been noticeably extra votes solid within the 2025 major in contrast with 2021. There’s usually lots of churn in New York, whose metropolitan space added extra individuals than some other metro space final 12 months, so the variety of voters might enhance resulting from individuals shifting in, individuals growing old into the citizens or individuals registering with the Democratic Social gathering.
However even right here, there was proof for extra enthusiasm for Mamdani. The rise in votes solid wasn’t uniform throughout town. Town general noticed roughly 6% extra votes solid in 2025, however within the neighborhoods Mamdani received, the common enhance was 14%.
How votes broke down by earnings
Mamdani’s sturdy efficiency in wealthier neighborhoods overshadowed the truth that his coalition was largely made up of middle-income voters.
Normally, Cuomo received extra votes than Mamdani among the many lowest-income voters. However Mamdani began overtaking Cuomo with voters who lived in census tracts with median annual family incomes of $60,000 to 70,000. Voters in these areas wouldn’t be thought-about low earnings by nationwide requirements, however in New York Metropolis, that earnings would make a household of 4 eligible for Part 8 housing vouchers.
Greater-income voters are one of many few demographics the place Cuomo considerably outran Adams. Nonetheless, he didn’t beat Mamdani amongst these voters. Of the 15 neighborhoods with median family incomes over $150,000, Mamdani received eight and Cuomo seven — together with the 2 wealthiest, Tribeca and the Higher East Aspect. 4 years in the past, all however certainly one of these neighborhoods voted for former metropolis commissioner Kathryn Garcia, who ran as a technocrat.
So if Adams will get squeezed out by Mamdani’s and Cuomo’s enchantment to higher-income voters, what in regards to the lower-income voters? Outcomes from 2025 recommend that Mamdani can compete with each Adams and Cuomo amongst this group.
With simply eight weeks to go till Election Day, a brand new ballot places Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani forward of the sphere within the race for New York Metropolis mayor — however that lead varies significantly primarily based on who’s left standing within the race. NBC New York’s Andrew Siff reviews.
Mamdani did nicely within the metropolis’s most various neighborhoods
Utilizing neighborhood boundaries outlined by the Division of Metropolis Planning, the AP discovered that Mamdani received 33 of the 109 neighborhoods Adams had received. They ranged from majority Black neighborhoods like Harlem and Flatbush to immigrant-heavy enclaves like Brighton Seaside and Kew Gardens.
Nearly all of those Adams-to-Mamdani neighborhoods, 30 of them, have been majority-minority, which means lower than 50% of the inhabitants is non-Hispanic white, based on the newest census estimates. This implies Mamdani’s enchantment to Adams voters wasn’t restricted to the incumbent’s white supporters.
Mamdani did significantly nicely within the metropolis’s most various neighborhoods, outlined as neighborhoods the place no racial or ethnic group constitutes a majority. Nearly half of the majority-minority Adams-to-Mamdani neighborhoods had no dominant racial or ethnic group.
Total, Mamdani received virtually two-thirds of probably the most various neighborhoods.
The most important distinction between Mamdani’s and Adams’ performances have been the neighborhoods in and round New York’s largest Asian communities. There are solely six majority Asian neighborhoods within the metropolis, throughout town’s three greatest Chinese language communities: Chinatown in Manhattan, Sundown Park in Brooklyn and Flushing in Queens. Mamdani received all six, plus eight of the 14 plurality Asian neighborhoods.
Adams received simply three of those 20 neighborhoods, with businessman Andrew Yang taking 14 and Garcia and activist Maya Wiley every successful one.
