Democratic mayoral nominee and Meeting member Zohran Mamdani.
Picture by Lloyd Mitchell
Democratic mayoral nominee and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani stays comfortably forward within the five-way basic election race for mayor — and throughout a number of situations through which a number of of his rivals drop out, a Gotham Polling and AARP survey launched Tuesday revealed.
The ballot of 1,376 seemingly New York Metropolis voters, taken on Aug. 11, exhibits Mamdani main the five-way race with almost 42% of the vote. He’s adopted by impartial former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (23.4%), Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa (16.5%), impartial incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (8.8%), and impartial legal professional Jim Walden (1.4%). The opposite 7.9% stay undecided.
Mamdani — a democratic socialist Queens Meeting member — additionally maintains his lead in a collection of situations the ballot assessments, the place completely different units of candidates drop out. The remainder of the sphere has been jockeying to be Mamdani’s most important competitor, with Cuomo seizing on the concept anybody who is just not main in September drops out and helps the Queens lawmaker’s runner-up.
Adams and Sliwa have rejected the concept, saying they haven’t any plans of leaving the competition.
For example, the ballot exhibits that if Adams left the sphere, Mamdani would nonetheless lead Cuomo by 14 factors (42.6% to twenty-eight.6%).
In a head-to-head matchup with Cuomo, through which all the different candidates drop out, Mamdani continues to be forward by 11 factors (42% to 31.0%). In that situation, 27% of voters, who’re principally older and cut up pretty evenly between events, are nonetheless undecided, the ballot discovered.
“Mamdani sits on a hard floor around 40% but likely to have a firm ceiling below a majority; in a split field, that’s enough to stay ahead. Cuomo has the best path of the challengers, but even in a hypothetical one-on-one in an election that often favors lower-turnout, older electorates, he still trails by double digits,” mentioned Gotham Polling and Analytics President Stephen Graves.
“The opening for a comeback is the sizable uncommitted bloc in the consolidation tests – roughly 11% to 35% depending on who drops – which means a disciplined persuasion campaign could still make this a race,” he added.
Cuomo’s marketing campaign spokesperson declined to remark. A Mamdani spokesperson didn’t reply to a request for remark.
In a press release, Adams’ marketing campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro casted doubt on the survey’s accuracy.
“We’ve seen this before — polls once showed Andrew Cuomo beating Zohran Mamdani by more than 30 points, and yet Mamdani went on to win by double digits,” Shapiro mentioned. “Mayor Adams launched his re-election campaign just a month ago, and in that short time he has already raised millions of dollars, enlisted thousands of volunteers, and earned the backing of local businesses. The energy is on his side, and he’s winning where it counts — on the ground, with real New Yorkers.”
The survey exhibits that Mamdani can also be main throughout all racial and ethnic demographic teams. He has sturdy assist amongst Black (48%), Hispanic (45%), and Asian (48%) voters.
The ballot discovered Cuomo does finest amongst Jewish voters, 38% of whom assist him in comparison with 22% preferring Mamdani.
About the identical variety of surveyed voters (47%) view Mamdani favorably as unfavorably, with 5.2% remaining impartial. Extra voters (51.5%) view Cuomo unfavorably than favorably (38.8%), whereas 10.2% don’t lean come what may.
The survey outcomes proceed a development of Mamdani holding a commanding lead in public polls following the June Democratic main. It additionally exhibits that the Democratic nominee would win by a powerful plurality, however not a majority, on account of his fractured subject of opponents.
